I think I’m a good pilot. Above average, anyway. For sure.
Over 17,000 hours, 5 type ratings, published scientific research into pilot behavior, on and on. I work at it, every flight. Well, most every flight.
But a paper recently published in Psychological Science: Journal of the Association for Psychological Science (I’m not a nerd, but I am a subscriber) has me worried. It’s titled When knowledge knows no bounds: Self-perceived expertise predicts claims of impossible knowledge. The authors found that “people overclaim [knowledge] to the extent that they perceive their personal expertise favorably.” People that think they are experts, “overestimate their knowledge, including overestimating on concepts, events and people that do not exist and cannot be known.”
Clearly this applies to a lot of talking heads on TV, and a lot of teenagers talking about cool music … and maybe just maybe, pilots.
The researchers note in their discussion of the research:
Our work suggests that the seemingly straightforward task of judging one’s knowledge may not be so simple, particularly for individuals who believe they have a relatively high level of knowledge to begin with.
We don’t know what we don’t know. This could be very bad in a airplane cockpit. This effect has actually been studied extensively. A great online article by one of the paper’s authors for non-psychologists – We Are All Confident Idiots – has links to fun examples, like TV clips of Jimmy Kimmel asking pedestrians about hot new bands (that don’t exist).
We don’t just pretend to others we know more than we do, we actually fool ourselves. We don’t know what we don’t know. But the more stuff on a subject we do know, the worse our estimation about what things we don’t know becomes. Yikes. Are you really ready for a system malfunction? Or engine failure? How do you know?
What’s the solution? I think it’s the classic mindset of Beginners Mind – the right attitude of a child learning. Absorbing, accepting, always in touch with the wondrous new. Keep studying. Keep an open mind. Listen to your co-pilot, your wife, the little voice that says ‘are you really sure?’.
This mindset will help you become a great pilot. Like me!
The menace to understanding [is] not so much ignorance as the illusion of knowledge.
Daniel J Boorstin
I think you’re onto something. I was starting to think, after 30+ years of constant study and practice, that I was pretty good. Then I started a helicopter transition which uncovered a lot of slop in my airplane and glider flying. I suck.
The proper lookback time for skill judgment is probably closer to 30 seconds than it is to 30 years.
Good point Jim. The FAA 3 landings in 90 days is a broad brush. Where I rent a Super Cub they require 3 tailwheel landings in the last 3 weeks. It takes a lot of recent flying and training for fighter pilots to remain combat ready. Airline interviewers look for recency of experience, some flying in the last year, as piloting skills atrophy quickly.
I used to think it was stupid people who didn’t know how stupid they are, but this research also shows smart people will also overestimate their knowledge.
There is always a way to get better.
Hi Dave! Thanks for your many years posting and sharing. I recently came across a short paper titled: “Levels of complacency” I’d like to send it to you if you haven’t read it.
Happy landings
Ricardo
Thanks for the kind words. That paper sounds interesting, I’m at [email protected]
Agree….I retired after 34 years active military transport flying…After a cool off of 2 years I am flying again and I am amazed at the new things I am learning every day…How ignorant I was and how I felt (wrongly) so overconfident earlier. Now I have Beginners attitude about learning …Its so much more satisfying..
Always something to learn! About the plane, the weather, the regulations . . . and ourselves!
Thanks for sharing Nerib.